Month: July 2026

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a global recession could occur if the conflict in Iran continued into 2027. The organisation warned that delays in agreeing a peace deal would affect global growth and cause energy shortages.

Indeed, the OECD said in a scenario where the conflict continues into 2027, global GDP could fall to 2.1% in 2026, compared to 2.4% in 2025.

Markets experienced volatility but recovered throughout June 2026

On 3 June, European markets opened in the red. US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on 60 countries, including the UK, the EU, and Australia, over allegations of forced labour. However, having seen similar tactics before, markets reacted more subtly than they have in the past.

The UK index, the FTSE 100, was up 0.13% when markets opened on 4 June, thanks to news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. However, this was short-lived as technology valuations slipped, leading to the index falling 0.46%.

The fall continued into the following day, with South Korea’s main index, the KOSPI, dropping 5%.

Renewed conflict in the Middle East hit markets on 9 June. The KOSPI fell more than 9%, triggering a circuit break, which halted trading for 20 minutes. Similarly, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-3.8%), the US S&P 500 (-2.64%), and markets across Europe fell as AI and technology valuations dipped.

Markets did bounce back on 10 June, including the KOSPI rising 8.4%, which could suggest the drop was a blip rather than an AI market crash.

Despite hopes of a ceasefire earlier in the month, the US and Iran exchanged fire on 10 June. This led to volatility in Asian markets and European markets remaining flat as they opened.

On 12 June, SpaceX raised $75 billion (£56.8 billion) in the world’s biggest initial public offering (IPO), which valued the company at $1.77 trillion (£1.34 trillion).

News of a potential US-Iran peace deal on 15 June led to a global rally, with many markets opening in the green, including the Nikkei (5%), FTSE 100 (1%), and the S&P 500 (1.5%).

The following day, the Nikkei broke through the 20,000 point mark to reach a record high.

The technology sell-off reemerged on 24 June. Again, the KOSPI experienced a sharp fall of 10%, and trading was temporarily halted. European and US shares also fell, including the US technology-focused index, the Nasdaq, dipping 1% as SpaceX shares tumbled 16.4%.

Once again, the sell-off was short-lived, with several indices, including the Dow Jones and Stoxx 600, hitting record highs on 25 June.

UK

On 22 June, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation. While markets reacted to the news relatively calmly, uncertainty over the coming weeks could lead to volatility.

According to the Office for National Statistics, inflation stayed at the same rate as the previous month at 2.8% in the 12 months to May 2026. Economists had expected a rise to 3%. This information is likely to have played a role in the Bank of England opting to hold interest rates where they are.

S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) series measures the health of businesses, and the results for May were a mixed bag.

Despite facing substantial pressure as prices rise, UK factories recorded a reading of 53.9 (a reading above 50 indicates growth) and reached a three-month high.

On the other hand, the service sector, which accounts for around 80% of the UK economy, fell into contraction territory with a reading of 49.3.

Europe

Eurozone inflation increased from 3% to 3.2% in the 12 months to May 2026, according to Eurostat. The news prompted the European Central Bank to lift interest rates.

Further data shows eurozone GDP fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year, with Ireland’s GDP falling 12.1%. Two consecutive quarters of decline would place the eurozone in a technical recession, so economists will be looking closely at the bloc’s performance in the third quarter.

Economists at the research institute DIW warned that the German economy, the largest in Europe, was at risk of a recession due to a possible energy shock caused by conflict.

Despite this negative news, S&P Global’s PMI shows factory output increased to a four-year high in May, resulting in a reading of 51.6.

US

US inflation was in line with expectations at 4.2% in the 12 months to May 2026, but was higher than the 3.8% recorded in April.

In good news, the US economy added more jobs than expected. Economists had predicted 85,000 jobs would be added in May, but the reality far surpassed that at 172,000. The boost was partly attributed to the 2026 FIFA World Cup taking place in the US, leading to a hiring boom of hospitality workers to prepare for the influx of tourists.

US-based company Alphabet, the parent company of Google, said it plans to raise $80 billion (£60.6 billion) in equity to fund its vast AI infrastructure investments. It would mark the largest equity raising ever. The news led to shares falling by around 4%.

Asia

Chinese exports jumped 19.4% year-on-year in May, with chip exports more than doubling.

Inflation pressure led to Japan’s central bank hiking interest rates from 0.75% to 1%. While the increase might seem insignificant, it’s the highest rate in Japan since 1995.

Please note: This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at individuals only.

All information is correct at the time of writing and is subject to change in the future.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Affluent families who delay estate planning could miss out on chances to reduce a potential Inheritance Tax (IHT) bill and pass more on to their families. Find out if you could benefit from considering IHT and how you might pass on assets tax-efficiently.

According to a report covered by Today’s Wills and Probate (5 June 2026), delays in estate planning could cost UK families £12.3 billion when changes mean pensions will form part of your estate next year.

Under the current rules, most pension wealth sits outside your estate for IHT purposes. This made pensions a useful way to pass on wealth. However, for many pension holders, that will change on 6 April 2027, as most pensions will be included in IHT calculations.

However, the new pension rules don’t account for all potential IHT savings. Indeed, £7.9 billion of the total sum is attributed to delaying estate planning.

The report states that a person beginning estate planning at 50 and making use of multiple strategies, such as exemptions, reliefs, and business relief investments, could, on average, pass on £397,000 more to loved ones than those who delayed estate planning until they were 70.

1 in 5 homeowners could be overlooking a potential Inheritance Tax bill

There are many reasons why families delay estate planning

It might seem like something you don’t need to worry about until later in life, or you may mistakenly believe your estate will not be liable for IHT when you pass away.

Yet, you could be closer to the IHT threshold than you think. According to an article in MoneyAge (16 June 2026), a study of homeowners aged 45 and over found that 1 in 5 people with estates worth more than £1 million describe themselves as “just getting by”.

In 2026/27, the nil-rate band is £325,000. If the total value of your estate is below this threshold, no IHT will be due. In many cases, if you leave your main home to a direct descendant, you can also use the residence nil-rate band, which is £175,000 in 2026/27.

You may pass unused allowances to your spouse or civil partner. As a result, you might be able to pass on up to £1 million before IHT is applied to your estate.

That might seem like a significant amount. However, your estate covers your assets, such as your home, investments, and personal possessions, as well as your pension from 6 April 2027. So, it is possible to unexpectedly leave your loved ones with an IHT bill.

Estate planning isn’t just about IHT either. It includes setting out how you want to pass on your assets so they go to your intended beneficiaries, as well as planning for your security later in life. So, even if your estate won’t be liable for IHT, you could still benefit from an estate plan.

4 gifting allowances that could reduce your estate’s Inheritance Tax bill

Gifting assets during your lifetime could reduce a potential IHT bill. However, it’s not as straightforward as simply transferring assets to your loved ones.

First, it’s important to be aware of how a gift could affect your long-term financial security. A financial plan could help you assess the potential impact.

Second, not all gifts are immediately excluded from your estate for IHT purposes. Some may be included in your estate and subject to a tapered IHT rate should the value of all your assets exceed IHT thresholds.

Using these four gifting allowances as part of your wider estate plan could provide a tax-efficient way to pass on assets.

1. Annual exemption

The annual exemption allows you to give away up to £3,000 each tax year without the value being added to your estate when calculating IHT. You may gift this sum to one person or split it between several people. You can carry forward any unused annual exemption for one tax year.

2. Small gift allowance

Small gifts valued up to £250 can be given to as many people as you’d like each tax year, so long as you have not used another allowance on the same person.

3. Wedding and civil partnership gifts

Celebrating a wedding or civil partnership also presents an opportunity to gift tax-effectively. You can gift £1,000 to the happy couple, and the gift will immediately fall outside your estate. This allowance rises to £2,500 for your grandchild or great-grandchild and £5,000 for your child.

4. Regular gifts from your income

Regular payments you make to another person can fall outside your estate, so long as:

• There is an established pattern of making these payments
• The payments are made from your regular monthly income
• You can maintain your usual standard of living after making the payments.

This could provide a valuable way to support your family while reducing a potential IHT bill. For example, you might use this allowance to:

• Pay the rent or mortgage for your child
• Contribute to a savings account for your grandchild
• Provide cash to a family member that they can use for living costs.

For this allowance to be applied to your estate when calculating IHT, there needs to be a pattern of making these payments. So, it’s important to keep accurate, clear records of these gifts.

Contact us

If you’d like to understand whether your estate could be liable for IHT when you pass away, and how you might mitigate a potential bill, please get in touch.

Please note: This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at individuals only.

All information is correct at the time of writing and is subject to change in the future.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate estate planning or Inheritance Tax planning.

Remember that taper relief only applies to gifts in excess of the nil-rate band. It follows that, if no tax is payable on the transfer because it does not exceed the nil-rate band (after cumulation), there can be no relief.

Taper relief does not reduce the value transferred; it reduces the tax payable as a consequence of that transfer.

On 22 June, Keir Starmer announced he would quit as Labour Party leader. The decision had been anticipated in the media, but the changes still pose some uncertainty over the coming weeks. Read on to find out what it could mean for your finances.

The Labour Party will need to decide on a new leader, which could cause market volatility. Once a new leader is in place, they will have control over fiscal policy that could affect business and personal finances.

While a change in political leadership can feel worrisome when you consider your finances, taking a long-term view is important.

Uncertainty may cause market volatility in the coming weeks

Investment markets may experience volatility in response to uncertainty, which could affect the value of your investments.

Following Starmer’s announcement, markets were relatively stable. According to the Guardian (22 June 2026), markets largely “shrugged off the news” as the resignation was expected. Indeed, a domestically focused index, the FTSE 250, was down just 0.01%.

As the new prime minister is announced and sets out their vision for the UK, markets could experience greater volatility, particularly if there are any surprises.

While this might feel disconcerting, keep in mind that short-term volatility is a part of investing, and markets have historically recovered.

In the last decade, the UK has had seven prime ministers, and while periods of volatility followed some of these leadership changes, the overall market trend has been upwards.

So, rather than reviewing your portfolio’s performance each day, take a look at the bigger picture. Assessing performance over several years could highlight an overall trend rather than short-term responses to periods of change.

While you might be tempted to make changes in response to volatility, sticking to your long-term investment strategy instead of making knee-jerk decisions could be beneficial.

It’s important to note that investment returns cannot be guaranteed, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The prime minister may change policies that affect personal finances

The new prime minister might also choose to go in a different direction from the previous one. For example, they could change tax rates or allowances, which might affect your personal finances.

While the potential for change could prompt some people to alter their financial plans, this often isn’t the best course of action.

First, with so much speculation, it can be difficult to know what information is accurate before it’s officially announced. Reacting to a news headline that isn’t confirmed could mean making unnecessary changes to your financial plan, which has the potential to harm your ability to reach your goals.

Second, when changes are unveiled, they often aren’t implemented immediately. So, you will typically have an opportunity to fully assess your options rather than needing to make a snap decision.

As your financial planner, we could alert you if anything might affect your long-term financial plan. We could help you assess how changes might affect you and offer guidance on how to mitigate the potential effects if appropriate.

Contact us

Over the coming weeks, there’s likely to be a lot of speculation about what will happen. Remember, reacting to rumours could lead you to make decisions based on scenarios that don’t materialise or ones that don’t align with your objectives.

If you have any questions about what Starmer’s resignation means for your finances, please get in touch.

Please note: This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at individuals only.

All information is correct at the time of writing and is subject to change in the future.

Please do not act based on anything you might read in this article. All contents are based on our understanding of HMRC legislation, which is subject to change.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Having a reliable income in retirement could give you the freedom to create a lifestyle you enjoy and achieve those bucket-list goals you’ve dreamed about for years.

In a 2023 survey by Legal & General, 94% of UK adults said their most important retirement dream is to feel financially secure for the rest of their lives.

However, working out what your income might look like many years from now can be complex. As such, you may feel in the dark about how your pensions, savings, and investments might support you in later life.

Indeed, research findings published by IFA Magazine reveal that just one in five people with a defined contribution (DC) pension understand what retirement income they can expect.

This uncertainty could leave you worried about your long-term financial security and unprepared for what lies ahead. That’s where financial advice comes in.

Keep reading to find out how a financial planner can use cashflow modelling to give you a clear picture of your retirement income and help you plan for the future you want.

The challenges of planning a sustainable retirement income

Calculating what your retirement income might be is challenging because you’re often trying to project decades ahead.

What’s more, your income could be affected by various external factors that are unpredictable and out of your control, such as investment returns and inflation.

Longer life expectancies add another layer of complexity. According to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) life expectancy calculator, a 45-year-old woman has an average life expectancy of 87 years, and a man of the same age could expect to live to 84.

This means that your retirement funds may need to cover about 30 years or more, depending on when you retire and your longevity. Of course, no one can predict exactly how long they’ll live, which makes it difficult to know how far your wealth will stretch.

These uncertainties could make retirement planning feel overwhelming.

A cashflow model could remove uncertainty and provide peace of mind

A financial planner can use smart software called cashflow modelling to help you plan your retirement income.

This is how it works in simple terms:

• Input data – Your financial planner enters information about your current financial position, such as your income, expenses, assets, and liabilities.
• Layer variables – They can then factor in variables such as investment performance, inflation, and your projected future income.
• Generate a cashflow forecast – The software will create a long-term projection of your finances based on your desired retirement age and life expectancy.

By tweaking the data entered, your financial planner can show you how a range of possible scenarios might affect your income. For example, you might want to see how a dip in the market or retiring earlier could affect your finances.

The power of cashflow modelling is that it removes the guesswork from retirement planning. You can clearly see how a change in your circumstances might affect your income and identify any potential shortfalls. This puts you in a strong position to adapt your strategy so that you stay on track to achieve your goals.

Your financial planner can ensure you get the most out of cashflow modelling

While there are many advantages of using a cashflow model to inform your retirement planning decisions, there are some potential drawbacks to consider too, including:

• It’s only as good as the data that’s input – Incorrect or incomplete information could result in a misleading forecast.
• It needs regular updating to be a useful planning tool – A cashflow model provides projections based on your current finances and assumptions about the future, such as the rate of inflation. This means that your model could quickly become outdated if your circumstances or external factors change.
• It requires oversight by a professional to be used effectively – A cashflow model can support retirement planning, but it can’t replace the expertise and guidance offered by a human professional.
• It could provide a false sense of security – A model can’t guarantee what your retirement income will be. It must be carefully stress-tested by a financial planner to ensure that projections are realistic and don’t appear more definite than they are. This involves exploring “what-if?” scenarios that might affect your retirement income, such as dips in the market and serious illness.

A financial planner can make sure you get the most out of your cashflow model by:

• Tailoring it to your needs and goals
• Regularly reviewing and updating it
• Stress-testing it against different scenarios
• Embedding it in your broader financial plan.

In other words, they’ll make sure your model is a valuable retirement planning tool that helps you make informed decisions with confidence.

Get in touch

If you have any questions about cashflow modelling and how it could help you gain clarity on your retirement income, we’d love to hear from you.

Please note: This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at individuals only.

All information is correct at the time of writing and is subject to change in the future.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate cashflow modelling.

Investing is often as much about emotions as it is about numbers. One emotion that might affect how you invest at times is fear. Learning how fear influences investment decisions and how to master it could support your long-term success.

Fear could strike investors in multiple ways

There’s more than one form that fear can take when you’re investing. You might experience a fear of:

• Losing money, which could lead to you being overly cautious. You might even avoid investing altogether because of the perceived risk of losing some or all of your money.
• Making the wrong decision. As an investor, you often have multiple options, and this form of fear could lead to decision paralysis because you overthink or feel overwhelmed.
• Missing out. There’s a lot of investment noise, including people proclaiming that one investment or another is a must-invest. For some investors, this might generate a fear of missing out (FOMO) that could lead to impulsive decisions.
• Not being in control. Multiple factors that aren’t in your control will affect the performance of your investments, and this can be scary. Investors experiencing this type of fear might miss opportunities due to their worries or react in a way that doesn’t align with their strategy when new information is released.

Many things could trigger fear when making investment decisions, such as market volatility or even being reminded that investing involves risk. Indeed, according to FT Adviser (4 June 2026), more than half of UK adults said that reading a risk warning when investing in stocks and shares puts them off investing.

It’s natural to feel some worries in these scenarios, but mastering your fears could improve long-term outcomes.

Fear could lead to decisions that don’t align with your long-term strategy

Fear isn’t necessarily a bad thing when you’re investing. It might prevent you from rushing into an investment that isn’t suitable for you, but it could also harm your decisions.

For example, investing might play an important role in your long-term financial plan. It might help you grow your pension savings with the aim of delivering a more comfortable retirement. However, if you fear losing money, you might choose to hold your assets in cash instead, which would mean missing out on potential investment returns.

Investment returns cannot be guaranteed, and past performance may not be replicated. However, historically, markets have delivered returns over long-term time frames and recovered from periods of downturn.

It’s also important to note that there are different levels of risk when you’re investing, so you can choose opportunities that align with your risk profile. In addition, a balanced portfolio will spread your investments across a variety of assets, so while you might lose money in one area, gains in another could create balance.

A key part of mastering fear so it doesn’t hamper your long-term goals is understanding the difference between perceived and actual risks.

Acting out of fear when investing could make it more difficult to achieve your financial goals and increase stress. So, here are three things to keep in mind when you’re investing.

3 steps that could reduce investment fear

1. Focus on your long-term objectives

Emotional responses are often temporary, as are the factors that trigger them. Instead, focus on what your long-term objectives are. This can help you put current events into perspective and potentially reduce your concerns.

Some investors may find it useful to implement a decision delay, such as waiting at least a day before making any changes. This could provide time for strong emotions to ease and an opportunity to review what’s driving your initial reaction.

2. Recognise that market volatility is normal

One factor that often affects investor emotions is market volatility. However, if you look at past performance, you’ll see that rises and falls in investment values are normal.

Rather than looking at investment values daily or weekly, take a longer-term view. When you look at performance over several years, you’ll often see that the peaks and troughs smooth out, which doesn’t seem as scary.

3. Understand your investment strategy

Take some time to understand why your investment strategy is appropriate for you. Discussing with your financial planner why your risk profile is suitable for your current financial circumstances and overall goals could help ease fears.

A financial planner could reduce the impact of emotions when making financial decisions

Working with a financial planner could help keep emotions, including fear, in check when you’re making financial decisions.

Your financial planner will understand your goals and strategy, so they could provide an objective review of your decisions and factors that you might be worried about. Knowing you have someone who could provide tailored guidance might also help you tune out some of the noise that could trigger emotional responses and allow you to focus on what matters to you.

Please contact us to arrange a meeting with one of our team.

Please note: This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at individuals only.

All information is correct at the time of writing and is subject to change in the future.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

This guest blog was written by Chris Budd, who wrote the original Financial Wellbeing Book as well as The Four Cornerstones of Financial Wellbeing. He founded the Institute for Financial Wellbeing and has written more than 130 episodes of the Financial Wellbeing Podcast.

Once upon a time, there was a man who had come into a bit of money. Not a life-changing amount, but enough to pay off the mortgage and do some nice things.

Now, this chap’s wife wouldn’t discuss the money. She said that she wasn’t interested. In fact, she said that she wanted “nothing to do with it”.

The lack of interest was not due to the source of the money. It was just that she felt uncomfortable talking about money. She was happy to join him on a cruise around the Norwegian Fjords. She just didn’t want to think about the money.

As a consequence, she didn’t attend the meetings with their financial planner. She didn’t understand how pensions or investments worked. She just wasn’t interested.

This began to cause a bit of a problem. The man wanted to discuss it with her. He wanted to consider some life changes, such as her retiring earlier than planned. He nagged her about it. Eventually, she agreed to meet their financial planner.

This is how the conversation went.

The folded arms

Initially, the lady sat with her arms folded, waiting for the financial planner to start telling her all about investment markets and economic predictions.

Instead, the planner asked her about her work. She assumed that this was just small talk. A little impatient to get the meeting over with, she curtly answered the questions. When the planner asked what it was that she enjoyed about her work, and whether this might change in the future, she began to relax and to open up a little.

They discussed the nature of her work, how she didn’t like her boss, and how she had done the job for fifteen years now. How much she enjoyed volunteering at a local community farm on her day off on Fridays. How she and her husband liked to travel.

Half an hour later, she began to wonder if this was in fact small talk at all. They were now covering whether their children were happy, her love of singing and listening to choral concerts, and his hobby of making stained glass windows.

After an hour, she found herself feeling a little impatient. She finally asked a direct question. When are we going to talk about the investments?

The explanation

The financial planner thanked her for the question. They then explained that the human brain is not wired to make good financial decisions. Research (Caltech, 8 February 2010) has shown that when we think about money, we use the part of our brain that we use when frightened.

We are also not very good at thinking about our future self (Financial Wellbeing Podcast, 31 May 2023). The part of our brain we use when trying to think of ourselves in, say, 10 years is the same part that we use when we think about strangers.

Combine these two pieces of information, and we can start to see why financial planning is something that many people try to avoid.

The good news, however, is that financial planning isn’t really about money. It is about joy. It’s about wellbeing. It’s about planning for a happy future.

Sure, it is also about a reasonable mitigation of tax, management of investments, and some financial calculations. However, the planner explained, that’s my job, not yours. All you need to do is tell me what your happy future looks like. Which you’ve now done, so thank you.

Now, continued the planner, I did actually run some numbers before this meeting. And I can tell you that all the things that you would like to do in your life are possible. In fact, you only really need to work if you want to, not because you have to.

You could, in fact, stop work now, as long as your husband continued to work for another five years. Alternatively, you could reduce your hours from 4 days to 2 days a week and he can stop working in three years.

Furthermore, as you do not need to earn money during those days not working, you can spend more time volunteering at the community farm.

Oh, and you can have six weekends away each year, three of them in the UK and three of them abroad, to visit cathedrals and enjoy concerts.

Engagement

The planner stopped talking. She waited for him to resume, but he didn’t. Eventually, she spoke.

She expressed polite disbelief. How was all this possible? Surely, they couldn’t afford what he described.

The planner explained that it was all contained in the financial plan. He would be very happy to talk through it if she were interested.

She said that she was. She most definitely was interested.

Please note: This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at individuals only.

All information is correct at the time of writing and is subject to change in the future.