There were ups and downs for investors during September 2025, with disappointing economic data dampening the market at times. However, some positive outcomes also emerged. Read on to find out what might have influenced your investment portfolio’s recent performance.

Investors turn to gold as market uncertainty continues in September 2025

The price of gold reached a record high of $3,508.50 (£2,600) an ounce on 2 September. Gold is often viewed as a “safe” asset, so the rising value could signal that investors are feeling nervous about the outlook for the equity market.

As gold prices rose, markets in the UK, Europe, and the US declined.

On 2 September, the FTSE 100 fell 0.43%. Among the biggest losers were retailers Marks & Spencer (-3.6%) and Sainsbury’s (-2.5%), and housebuilders Taylor Wimpey (-3.4%) and Barratt Redrow (-2.5%).

Similarly, key indices fell in Europe and the US, including Germany’s DAX (-1%), Spain’s IBEX (-0.9%), Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.9%), and the US’s S&P 500 (-1.2%).

Shares in airlines tumbled on 4 September after Jet2 told investors it expected earnings this year to be on the lower end of forecasts. The announcement sent the company’s shares down 14% and had a knock-on effect on other airlines, including easyJet (-4.2%) and IAG (-2.3%).

Rising tensions between Russia and Europe led to defence company BAE Systems’ share price rising 2.9% on 11 September. The jump made the company the biggest riser on the FTSE 100, which gained 0.37%.

On 11 September, hopes that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates lifted the major Wall Street indices, including the Dow Jones (0.5%) and S&P 500 (0.25%).

Then, on 24 September, after President Donald Trump said that Nato aircraft should shoot down Russian aircraft entering its airspace, European defence stocks jumped. The two biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Babcock International (1.9%) and BAE Systems (1.5%). Other companies whose share prices increased included France’s Thales (1.7%), Germany’s Rheinmetall (1.4%), and Italy’s Leonardo (2.8%).

After signs that the US trade war had eased in August, Trump unveiled new tariffs on 26 September.

From 1 October, medicines and pharmaceutical goods will face a 100% tariff when entering the US. Unsurprisingly, this caused shares in firms within this sector to fall, including AstraZeneca (-1.4%). The US will also impose tariffs of between 25% and 50% on other goods, including heavy-duty trucks and kitchen cabinets.

UK

Official data for July showed GDP was unchanged from the previous month.

The inflation rate for the 12 months to August was 3.8%, prompting the Bank of England to keep interest rates static.

UK borrowing costs reached a 27-year high in September due to higher interest rates on national debt. The additional cost ate into the headroom available in the November Budget, placing pressure on the chancellor, who reportedly needs to plug a £50 billion gap in the public finances.

The effect of Trump’s trade war was also visible in the figures released in September. According to the Office for National Statistics, the trade deficit widened by £400 million to £10.3 billion in the three months to July 2025.

Data from S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an economic indicator, painted a weak picture for the manufacturing sector. The PMI reading was 47 in August (readings above 50 indicate growth). This was the 11th consecutive month the PMI remained below 50.

However, the PMI data wasn’t all negative. The service sector hit a 16-month high in August 2025 with a reading of 54.2. Encouragingly, sales to the EU and US rose, which could suggest long-term growth.

Technology investors welcomed the news that US tech giant Nvidia pledged to invest £2 billion in UK firms, which could boost the sector.

Europe

Inflation across the eurozone was 2.1% in the 12 months to August 2025, only slightly above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%. Cyprus recorded the lowest inflation rate in the European Union at 0%, while Romania had the highest rate at 8.5%.

The ECB raised its eurozone growth forecast for this year to 1.2%, up from 0.9% in June. However, it tempered this rise with a slightly lower forecast of 1% for 2026.

The bloc also received other positive news. HCOB’s eurozone manufacturing PMI was 50.7 in August, a 14-month high. Meanwhile, unemployment dipped to a record low of 6.2% in July, according to data from Eurostat.

The European Commission’s economic sentiment tracker improved in September, suggesting greater confidence in the outlook after the EU struck a trade deal with the US.

This month also saw an interesting initial public offering for investors. Swedish fintech company Klarna is set to debut on the New York Stock Exchange with a value of more than $14 billion (£10.9 billion).

US

US inflation continued to be above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target at 2.9% in the 12 months to August 2025. This was partly due to businesses passing on the cost of tariffs to consumers.

The data led to the Federal Reserve cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points, and economists expect further cuts before year-end.

Job data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics may suggest that businesses aren’t feeling confident enough to hire new employees. The US economy added only 22,000 new jobs in August, well below the expected 75,000.

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reached a new high on 15 September after shares increased by almost 4%, pushing its value to $3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time.

News was less positive for Tesla. The company’s share of the US electric vehicle market fell to 38%, down from more than 80% at its peak, amid rising competition.

Asia

The effects of Trump’s trade war were evident in official figures from China.

Chinese export growth slowed to a six-month low in August. Exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month. Shipments to the US fell 33%, and a 22.2% rise in exports to Southeast Asian nations wasn’t enough to offset the decline.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Your home is likely to be one of the largest assets you own. Indeed, according to the Halifax House Price Index, in August 2025, the average house in the UK was worth almost £300,000. So, you might be wondering how to efficiently pass on your property, including gifting your home to your children, to minimise an Inheritance Tax (IHT) bill.

In 2025/26, you can pass on up to £325,000 before IHT might be due. This is known as the “nil-rate band”. You can often use the residence nil-rate band, which is £175,000 in 2025/26, if you leave a qualifying property, including your main home, to a direct descendant.

In addition, you can pass on unused allowances to your spouse or civil partner. As a result, you might be able to pass on up to £1 million before IHT is due on your estate.

Both the nil-rate band and residence nil-rate band are frozen until April 2030. So, even if the value of your estate hasn’t exceeded the threshold for paying IHT yet, it might in the future as the value of your home and other assets rise.

Passing on assets during your lifetime may be an effective way to reduce the value of your estate, though gifts may be included when calculating IHT for up to seven years after they are given.

As a large asset, gifting your home could be useful, but how does it work, and what are the risks?

HMRC will not recognise a gift if you retain an interest in it

One of the challenges of passing on property to your children for IHT purposes is that you often want to remain living in your home, which can add a layer of complexity.

If you gifted your home to your child and remained living in it rent-free, it would be considered a gift with reservation of benefit as you retain an interest in the property. In this case, HMRC would not recognise this as a gift when calculating IHT, so your estate would still potentially be liable for IHT on the property.

Usually, you’ll have two options to gift a property to reduce an IHT bill:

1. Leave your home forever, as if you had sold it. This might be a useful option if you own multiple properties and wish to pass on your home or other property during your lifetime.
2. Remain in your home and pay market rent to your child, who would now be the owner. While this option may reduce an IHT bill, your child might need to pay Income Tax on the rent they receive.

As well as understanding the IHT rules, there are also risks that are important to consider before you gift property to your child. Once the property transfer has been completed, you will no longer be the homeowner, and it’s an irreversible decision.

Your child would be able to make decisions regarding the property, including selling it, which can be particularly risky if you plan to remain living there.

While you might not have concerns about them selling the property while you live there, it’s impossible to know what’s around the corner. For example, what would happen if your child faced financial difficulties and needed to sell the property as a result? This could leave you in a financially vulnerable position with fewer options.

Transferring equity to your child could be an alternative option

One alternative option is to transfer equity to your child. In this scenario, you’d remain on the legal title as the original owner, and your child will be added as an additional owner. This could provide you with some security while still passing on a portion of your property wealth during your lifetime.

Transferring equity can be a complex process, especially if you’re still paying a mortgage. Seeking legal advice could help you avoid mistakes and ensure it’s the right option for you.

There are also tax considerations to assess before you transfer equity to your child.

First, any equity you gift might be included in your estate for IHT purposes for up to seven years after it was given. Second, in some cases, your child could be liable for Stamp Duty when they receive the equity.

Again, seeking professional financial and legal advice could help you understand the tax implications of transferring equity.

Contact us to talk about how to make your property part of your estate plan

If you’d like to talk about passing assets, including your property, to your children or other beneficiaries as part of your estate plan, please get in touch.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate estate planning or inheritance tax planning.

On 26 November, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will deliver the government’s Autumn Budget, setting out fiscal plans for the year ahead and beyond. There’s speculation that some of the announcements could affect homeowners, including changes to Stamp Duty.

According to a September 2025 article from the BBC, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates the chancellor will need to plug a £50 billion gap in public finances.

While the chancellor has played down this figure, it has led to expectations that taxes will increase or public spending will be cut. One such tax that headlines suggest could be mentioned in the Budget is Stamp Duty.

Stamp Duty is a tax you pay when you purchase property or land

In England and Northern Ireland, Stamp Duty is a type of tax you pay when you purchase land or property.

In 2025/26, the Stamp Duty rates are:

Usually, if you own another residential property, you’ll pay an additional 5% on the rate above.

If you’re buying your first home, you may benefit from a relief. This could mean you don’t need to pay Stamp Duty (if you’re buying a property for £300,000 or less) or you pay Stamp Duty at a reduced rate (if the property is worth between £300,001 and £500,000).

There are similar taxes in Wales and Scotland, though the thresholds and rates are different. As these taxes are set by the Welsh and Scottish governments, an announcement in the Budget about Stamp Duty may not affect homebuyers in these areas.

Stamp Duty has been criticised for discouraging moving

Stamp Duty has been criticised as inefficient in the past.

As home movers face a large, one-off cost, Stamp Duty can be a deterrent for moving, which may lead to people staying in homes longer than they otherwise would. For example, empty nesters might put off downsizing because they don’t want to pay Stamp Duty.  Not only does this affect the family that decides not to move, but it can also mean there isn’t as much choice on the property market overall.

It seems that movers expect there to be changes in the Budget and are worried about the uncertainty.

According to research published by the Intermediary in October 2025, 1 in 5 homeowners have said they are putting plans to sell on hold ahead of the November Budget.

3 ways the chancellor could change property taxes in the Budget

It’s important to note that reported changes to property taxes are just speculation at this stage. We won’t know exactly what changes, if any, will be implemented until 26 November.

However, here are three options Rachel Reeves may be weighing up.

1. Increasing Stamp Duty rates

If Reeves is looking to raise taxes, one simple option might be to increase the existing Stamp Duty rates. However, this could have a damaging effect on mobility, and lead to property sales falling, which could cut government tax receipts and make it harder for first-time buyers.

2. Introducing an annual property tax

One proposal suggests scrapping Stamp Duty and replacing it with an annual property tax. This would likely be a tax paid by homeowners in properties valued above a certain threshold, reportedly £500,000, and could potentially replace both Stamp Duty and Council Tax.

While this would be welcome news for some homemovers, it’s likely to disproportionately affect buyers in London and the south-east, where property prices are higher.

3. Creating a “mansion tax”

There’s also talk of a possible “mansion tax” for homes valued at more than £1.5 million. Under this proposal, homeowners would lose private residence relief on their main home and would pay Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on any increase in the property’s value when they dispose of it.

It could result in large bills, as higher-rate taxpayers pay CGT at a rate of 24% in 2025/26.

Contact us to talk about your mortgage

Choosing the right mortgage option for you could cut your costs over the long term. So, if you’re planning to move home in the coming months and need to take out a new mortgage, contact us to find out how we could help.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

Please do not act based on anything you might read in this article. All contents are based on our understanding of HMRC legislation, which is subject to change.

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on a mortgage or other loans secured on it.

Retiring should be a milestone you look forward to. It’s a chance to spend your time how you want and do the things you’ve been putting off because work has been in the way. Yet, sadly, research shows UK adults associate spending their retirement savings with negative words, and it could prevent them from enjoying the next chapter of their life.

According to an August 2025 article from Money Marketing, UK adults associate anxiety (26%), fear (18%), and guilt (15%) with spending their pension and other assets they’ve built up for retirement.

Positive emotions, such as excitement (15%), security (17%), and relief (10%), were less commonly associated with depleting assets in retirement.

Anxiety could hold back your retirement plans, even if you have enough to tick off items on your bucket list and live comfortably.

Working with your financial planner to create a cashflow model could help you turn anxiety into excitement.

A cashflow model can help you visualise your wealth

For most retirees, their pension provides their main source of income once they give up work. You’re also likely to benefit from the State Pension and have other assets you might want to draw on, such as savings, investments, or property.

Bringing together the value of all these assets and then calculating what that means for your income and financial security throughout your retirement can seem like a daunting task. This is where a cashflow model can be valuable.

A cashflow model is a powerful tool that lets you see how your wealth might change over your lifetime depending on the decisions you make and factors outside of your control.

You start by adding information about your finances now, such as the value of each asset and your expenditure.

With this foundation, the cashflow model can project how your wealth might change. So, you could see how the value of your pension will change during your working life if it delivers average annual returns of 5%. Or how your outgoings might rise to account for an annual inflation rate of 3%.

It can be particularly useful when you’re planning for retirement, as it can demonstrate if you have “enough” based on your plans, like when you want to retire and your expected income.

It’s important to note that the outcomes of a cashflow model cannot be guaranteed, but it can provide useful information so you’re able to make informed decisions. To ensure your cashflow model continues to reflect your circumstances and long-term goals, it’s also essential that you update it regularly with your financial planner.

Calculating a sustainable income could ease retirement anxiety

It’s understandable why people feel anxiety and fear about spending their retirement savings. After all, if you spend too much too soon, you could find yourself in a financially vulnerable position.

The cashflow model can project how your wealth might change. For instance, you could see:

• If you can maintain your current lifestyle with your pension savings
• Whether you’re in a position to retire before you reach State Pension Age
• Whether you’d potentially run out of money if you increased your annual pension withdrawal by £10,000.

Not only can a cashflow model help you understand the potential effect of your decisions, but it can also be useful when assessing how outside factors might affect your finances.

For example, you might change the assumptions the cashflow model uses to see how:

• You would cope if you faced an unexpected bill in retirement
• A period of high inflation might deplete your assets at a faster rate
• A market downturn would affect your investments and long-term finances.

A cashflow model can help you identify potential gaps in your retirement finances and take steps to bridge them. It could help you feel more positive about taking a step back from work and spending your pension.

Calculating the effect of gifting assets and the value of your estate could ease guilt

Interestingly, the Money Marketing article noted that 15% of UK adults feel guilty about spending their retirement savings.

If you find it difficult to spend money on yourself, a financial plan could help you identify what your priorities are and give you the confidence to pursue them.

For some people, supporting loved ones will be a priority and help ease any feelings of guilt. Again, a cashflow model can be useful.

If you want to gift assets to your loved ones during your lifetime, you can input this into your cashflow model to see how it might affect your long-term financial security. For example, if you want to gift a house deposit to your grandchild, you can use a cashflow model to assess the effect of gifting a lump sum now.

You might also be thinking about what legacy you’ll leave behind for loved ones, and how it could provide financial support when you’re gone. A cashflow model could help you calculate the value of your estate in the future, so you’re able to create an effective estate plan.

Contact us to talk about your cashflow plan

If you’d like to review or create a cashflow plan, please contact us.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until 55 (57 from April 2028). The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances. Thresholds, percentage rates, and tax legislation may change in subsequent Finance Acts. 

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate cashflow modelling or estate planning.

Everyone is affected by bias when they’re making decisions. However, while some choices will have little effect on your future, financial decisions could significantly affect your long-term security. When it comes to money, you ideally want to focus on logic and long-term goals rather than acting on biases.

Financial bias refers to the unconscious tendencies or emotions that can cloud logical decision-making about money.

While you might know that making investments or other financial decisions based on emotions is often a bad idea, one of the challenges is that it can be difficult to recognise when biases are influencing you. Indeed, you might believe you’re making a rational decision, but when you examine your motives, you realise emotions or social pressure are playing a role.

Being able to objectively look at what’s guiding your decisions could allow you to make the choices that are right for your long-term plans.

So, here are five signs that financial bias might be affecting your choices. Recognising them in your actions could give you a chance to review your decisions from a fresh perspective.

1. You feel the need to act urgently

If you feel like you need to react immediately to news or updates, emotions could be getting in the way of you making a logical decision.

For example, while investing can feel like you need to react immediately to secure the best returns, taking a long-term view is often a better approach for the average investor. Rushed decisions could mean investing in assets that don’t align with your financial goals or reacting based on only a portion of the information available.

Feeling the need to act urgently could be fuelled by fear – you might worry that if you don’t take immediate action, you’ll lose money or miss out on an opportunity – or other emotions.

If you find you’re frequently making reactive decisions, set a cooling-off period. Giving yourself 24 hours to think through the options could let your emotions settle and mean you can come back to the decision with a clear head.

2. You’re focused on short-term performance

How often do you check the performance of your investments?

While it’s natural to want to keep an eye on investment performance, especially during periods of volatility, it can lead to a short-term mindset. If you’re fixating on day-to-day changes in asset values, recency bias could be playing a role.

Recency bias is when you place too much weight on recent events. So, rather than looking at how your investments have performed over the last decade, you’re focused on the short-term market movements. It could lead to you making decisions based on short-term trends and potentially missing out on long-term gains.

You should invest with a long-term time frame, so zoom out when you’re reviewing performance to assess how your portfolio has fared over years, not weeks.

3. You’re distracted by what other people are doing

Going against the crowd can be scary in many situations, including when you’re making financial decisions. If you’re not following what everyone else is doing, it can feel like you must be making a mistake.

If you find yourself distracted by what others are doing, herd mentality could be affecting you.

Remember, even if a financial decision is right for your friend, it doesn’t automatically mean it’s a good idea for you as well. Your goals and financial circumstances could be very different and affect what’s right for each of you.

4. You ignore important market conditions

Being able to review information objectively can help you align decisions with your long-term goals. However, biases like overconfidence could mean you dismiss market conditions and instead rely on your instincts, even if evidence suggests your strategy might not be right for you or the current environment.

While it’s true that you shouldn’t let every headline dictate your decisions, overlooking data could be just as damaging. Regular financial reviews could help you strike the right balance and understand which information is relevant to your investment goals and time frame.

5. You want to “win” when investing

How investing is depicted in the media can make it seem like something you can win or lose at, and it can encourage a “go all in” mindset. That might lead to you investing a large portion of your wealth into a single opportunity or withdrawing all your investments to hold in cash during a downturn.

In reality, most investors benefit from a diversified portfolio that holds a range of assets and investments in different sectors and geographical locations. This means that when one area of your portfolio experiences a dip, it may be balanced by gains in another.

While that might not seem as exciting as putting all your money into a single investment opportunity in the hopes that it becomes the next technology giant, diversification can deliver more stable gains and be tailored to suit your risk profile.

Working with a financial planner could help you identify bias

It can be difficult to assess what’s guiding your own decisions, especially during emotional times. Working with a financial planner means you have someone who understands your situation to discuss your options with and counteract emotional reactions.

Please get in touch to arrange a meeting to talk to us about your financial plan and how to remain on track to reach your long-term goals.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

This guest blog was written by Chris Budd, who wrote the original Financial Wellbeing Book as well as The Four Cornerstones of Financial Wellbeing. He founded the Institute for Financial Wellbeing and has written more than 100 episodes of the Financial Wellbeing Podcast.

For most people, retiring is a goal. Pick an age, create a financial plan to make sure that age is achievable, and then start dreaming of the day that you don’t have to work.

The trouble with this approach is that it focuses on achieving the goal of not working. As a consequence, many people move into retirement without having given sufficient thought to what they will actually do with all this free time.

Retirement planning isn’t about having enough money so that you don’t have to work. Retirement planning is about designing a life that will bring you wellbeing.

What Kevin Keegan tells us about retirement planning

Kevin Keegan was the greatest footballer of his generation. He retired rich and successful. He went to live in Spain to play golf, the dream of many people in retirement.

After a few years, a realisation dawned on Kevin. He was bored.

He had gone from training all week and scoring goals in front of thousands of adoring fans to hitting a ball around the golf course. He had lost his purpose.

He moved back to the UK and became the football manager for Newcastle United.

Kevin hadn’t planned his retirement. He just did what everybody else did and assumed it would make him happy.

The 3 things you lose when you retire

A person who is old enough to have retirement in their sights is likely to have three things from work:

1. They are probably pretty good at what they do by now. They have competence.
2. They probably have a good understanding of why they do what they do and how it impacts others. They have purpose.
3. And they probably work with a team of people with whom they get on and who respect them. They have a community.

When you leave the world of work, all of these are going to disappear. A happy retirement, therefore, is one which has been planned well in advance for how to replace each of these three things.

Beware the travel trap

If I were to ask every person reading this article, “What do you plan to do in retirement?”, virtually every answer would include the word “travel”.

The world is a huge place, and there is so much variety of culture which most people would like to experience.

Including a budget for travel in your financial plan is a great idea. However, many people don’t go any further in their planning. This can be a mistake. There are two potential drawbacks to having travel as the main, or only, part of your retirement plan.

Firstly, you come back. Once you have ticked one destination off the list, it’s time to come home until it is time for the next trip. This means the majority of your time is spent not travelling.

Secondly, whilst travelling is a very enjoyable experience, it does not give any of those three things that you have just lost from work: competence, purpose and community.

Kindness

If there was one word which sums up the secret to happiness, it is: kindness.

When they reach retirement, many people spend at least some of their time helping others, like working in a charity, being a trustee, mentoring, or helping to run community organisations.

In the words of the late great Archbishop Desmond Tutu: “Joy is your reward for the giving of joy.”

A wellbeing retirement

The trick, then, to a retirement of joy and wellbeing is to look past the finish line.

When you reach the financial position which means you are working because you want to, not because you have to, how will you spend your time?

A week spent with a blend of: doing things you’ve always wanted to do; helping others; doing so in a way that uses your skills; and which gets you involved in a community; is likely to add up to a happy retirement.

It is a good idea to discuss these issues with your financial adviser. They should dare you to dream, to go beyond a list of things to do or places to go, and create a retirement of purpose and wellbeing.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

Trade tariffs continued to affect investment markets in June 2025, though uncertainty did start to ease. However, rising tensions in the Middle East may have affected the performance of your investments. Read on to find out more.

Remember, it’s often wise to take a long-term view of your investments when reviewing returns, rather than focusing on short-term market movements.

In June, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cut its global growth forecast to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, down from 3.1% and 3% respectively, on the assumption that tariff rates in mid-May are sustained.

The OECD said: “Substantial increases in barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, weaker business and consumer confidence and heightened policy uncertainty will all have marked adverse effects on growth prospects if they persist.”

Similarly, the World Bank lowered its growth forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies. It estimates that the 2020s are on course to be the weakest decade for the global economy since the 1960s.

Trade tensions ease, but uncertainty in the Middle East leads to volatility

On 2 June, a European market sell-off started in early trading as investors continued to react to the trade war. Stock indices, which track the largest companies listed on each stock exchange, were down, including Germany’s DAX (-0.25%), France’s CAC (-0.5%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.27%). Markets in the US also opened lower, including the S&P 500 dropping 0.3%.

However, there was some good news in the UK. Following the announcement of a new defence review, stocks in the sector jumped, with Babcock, one of the largest Ministry of Defence contractors, leading the way with a rise of 3.8%.

Germany’s sluggish economy received a boost on 4 June when a tax relief package worth €46 billion between 2025 and 2029 was unveiled. It led to the DAX rising 0.9%.

After weeks of tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and China, a trade deal was struck on 11 June. The US said a 55% tariff, inclusive of pre-existing levies, would be placed on China. The deal led to Chinese stocks rising. Indeed, the CSI 300 index, which tracks the largest stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, was up around 0.8%.

Despite poor economic data from the UK, the FTSE 100 closed at a record high on 12 June. Among the top risers were health and safety device maker Halma (2.8%) and Tesco (1.8%).

In contrast, European markets dipped, with the DAX (-1.35%) and CAC (-1%) both falling.

The Iran-Israel crisis led to stock markets falling when they opened on 13 June. In London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.56% and almost every blue-chip share was in the red. It was a similar picture in Europe and the US, with indices dipping.

On 24 June, Donald Trump, president of the US, declared there was a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. It led to geopolitical fears easing and markets rallying around the world. However, some fears remain.

UK

UK economic data released in June was weak.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows the UK economy shrank by 0.3% in April. This was partly linked to trade tariffs as exports of UK goods to the US fell by around £2 billion.

In addition, the ONS revealed the rate of inflation remained above the 2% target at 3.4% in the 12 months to May. The news led to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voting to hold interest rates.

However, think tank the Institute for Public Policy Committee said the central bank was harming households by not cutting the base interest rate. It also added that GDP was lower than expected because interest rates have been kept too high for too long.

A Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) involves surveying companies to create an economic indicator. A reading above 50 suggests a sector is growing.

In June, PMI readings for May show the manufacturing and construction sectors were contracting, but they had improved when compared to a month earlier, leading to hopes that a corner has been turned. In addition, the composite PMI, which combines service and manufacturing surveys, moved back into growth.

Europe

Eurostat figures show the rate of inflation across the eurozone fell to 1.9% in May, down from 2.2% in April, taking it below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target for the first time since September 2024.

In response, the ECB lowered its three key interest rates for the eighth time in the last 12 months.

There was also positive news from PMI data. The eurozone continues to hover just above the 50 mark that indicates growth, and German business activity returned to growth in June. As the largest economy in the eurozone, German activity is important to the bloc, and factory orders were also higher than expected.

Ireland is leading the EU in terms of growth. The country had expected its GDP to grow by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2025, but exceeded this with an impressive 9.7% boost. The jump was linked to strong exports in pharmaceuticals and other key sectors as companies tried to get ahead of tariffs.

US

In the 12 months to May 2025, the rate of inflation in the US increased slightly to 2.4% and remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

A PMI conducted by the Institute of Supply Management shows the US manufacturing sector is slipping due to tariff uncertainty. Indeed, 57% of the sector’s GDP contracted in May, up from 41% in April.

The data from the service sector was also negative, with figures showing it contracted in May for the first time in June 2024, and new orders fell at the fastest rate since December 2022.

However, separate data suggests that businesses are feeling more optimistic about the future.

The National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index increased three points in May. It was the first rise since Trump took office at the start of the year thanks to trade talks taking place between the US and China throughout June.

The US economy also added 139,000 jobs in May. The number was slightly higher than forecast and could suggest that businesses feel confident enough to expand their workforce.

Asia

Data from China showed it wasn’t immune to the effects of the trade war.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics data shows inflation was -0.1% in May as prices dropped. Deflation affecting the country highlighted the importance of the US and China reaching a trade deal.

In addition, manufacturing activity in May shrank at the fastest pace in two and a half years. Firms were hit by falls in new orders and weaker export demand. The PMI reading was 48.5, down from 50.4 in April.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Do you consider yourself an optimist or a pessimist?

The “blue dot theory” could suggest that humans are hard-wired to be pessimists, after psychologists discovered that once our brains are primed to see something (such as a blue dot), we see it everywhere, even when it’s not really there.

Read on to learn more about how the blue dot theory could be affecting you and how you can stop it from negatively impacting your life.

The “blue dot” theory

In 2017, Harvard researchers asked participants to identify blue dots among thousands, ranging from very blue to very purple.

During the first 200 trials, the participants could accurately identify the roughly equal proportion of blue and purple dots. However, as the experiment progressed and fewer blue dots appeared, participants began to label more obviously purple dots as blue.

To confirm their findings, the researchers attempted another trial with the same concept where they replaced the blue and purple dots with photos of threatening and non-threatening expressions. Once again, as they reduced the number of threatening photos, participants still identified the same ratio of pictures as threatening.

They concluded that our brains are designed to look for threats and problems regardless of our environment or whether the issues exist.

In practice, this often affects social lives. If your brain is looking for problems, you are more likely to interpret other people’s expressions, comments, or silences as judgments against you.

The blue dot theory also means that when you solve the big problems in your life, instead of being pleased with your progress, the smaller annoyances become more significant to you to fill the space.

How to combat the blue dot effect

If your brain is hard-wired to be pessimistic, you might be thinking there’s nothing you can do to change it – but have a bit of optimism!

The more aware you are of how the blue dot theory impacts your day-to-day life, the easier it is for you to change your mindset and combat the negative effects it can have on your relationships.

1. Stop projecting assumptions

The blue dot theory often leads us to leap to assumptions about other people based on our own thoughts, feelings, or intentions.

For example, you might interpret your colleagues’ neutral behaviour as personal attacks on you based on insecurities. Next time you find yourself wondering if someone you know is displeased with you, stop and consider whether you have concrete evidence to prove this.

Separating facts from assumptions can help you to quash the negative thoughts and remind you that most people are too focused on themselves to analyse your every move.

2. Try to avoid snap judgments

Our ability to make fast decisions is an evolutionary device that has kept humanity alive for centuries, but it can also lead to you making wrong judgments about your loved ones.

For example, if your friend seems quiet, your first assumption might be that they are upset with you. However, this snap judgment is based on limited evidence and might not be true.

Next time, you find yourself making a snap judgment about something important, pause and allow yourself to wonder what else could be the reasoning behind someone’s behaviour. For example, simply asking your friend what is wrong could help you to support them and deepen your friendship, rather than assuming the worst straight off the bat.

3. Practise gratitude

The blue dot effect can make your life seem a lot worse than reality by turning every inconvenience into a monumental problem and every social interaction into an anxiety-inducing spiral.

Although we can’t prevent ourselves from finding problems and seeing the bad parts of life, it’s important to focus on the good things.

Take five minutes out of your day to reflect on all the progress you have made in life and some good things that have happened to you recently. You can even record the things you are grateful for in a journal every morning for a positive start to your day, or every night to help you sleep peacefully.

While it can seem difficult to find the positives at first, practising gratitude can help you weaponise the blue dot theory against your brain. If you prime yourself to focus on the good things in life, you are more likely to see them, helping you to have a more optimistic outlook on life.

4. Be compassionate towards yourself

We are often our own worst critics. When we’re quick to judge ourselves, blue dot theory means we are even faster at interpreting other people’s actions as judgments against us.

Being kinder to yourself will mean you assume other people have good intentions and can help you put a positive spin on any problems you might face.

To start practising self-compassion, try talking to yourself as you would someone you care about. Every time you catch yourself thinking negative thoughts, consider whether you would say those things to someone you love, and offer yourself the same kindness.

After more than five decades at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway, legendary investor Warren Buffett has announced he’s retiring at the age of 94. He’s credited with turning the failing textile maker into a successful holding company. In May 2025, the BBC estimated Berkshire Hathaway was worth $1.16 trillion (£870 billion).

Considered by many to be the most successful investor of the 20th century, Buffett has regularly featured on lists of the world’s wealthiest people, despite giving away vast sums.

While Buffett has a huge number of resources at his disposal, many of his idioms may be useful for ordinary investors, including these five.

1. Invest with a long-term view

Throughout his career, Buffett has focused on the potential long-term value of stocks and shares.

Indeed, he said: “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

It’s a useful reminder that trying to generate quick returns could lead to investors missing out on long-term gains. With so many different factors influencing the value of investments, it’s impossible to consistently time the market.

While investment markets often experience short-term movements, historically, they have delivered returns over longer time frames. Investors who plan to hold investments over the long term could benefit as a result.

2. Avoid investing FOMO

Buffett earned the moniker “oracle of Omaha” for his ability to make long-term investment decisions, and he did it without following the crowd.

Investing FOMO (fear of missing out) leads some people to invest in a way that doesn’t align with their strategy because they believe investments are “good” or “safer” if others are choosing them. However, making investment decisions based solely on what others are doing may be harmful.

Buffett once said: “When everyone wants in on it, that’s probably not the right time to jump in.”

When everyone is talking about the latest stock that’s sure to deliver big returns, the buzz has often already led to prices rising. As a result, following the latest trends could lead to disappointment.

It’s also important to note that what is a “good” investment for one person may not be right for another. As your circumstances and goals will play a role in your investment strategy, acting based on FOMO might mean you make investment decisions that don’t align with your financial plan.

3. Invest in what you know

Buffett once advised budding investors that they didn’t have to be experts in every company, but only had to evaluate companies within their “circle of competence”. In other words, stick to what you know, even if an opportunity outside of your knowledge sounds enticing.

Recognising when you could benefit from expert advice or support is beneficial too.

Buffett considered this when thinking about his estate plan. He’s instructed the trustee of his estate to invest 90% of his money into a passive fund, so his wife doesn’t need to make investment decisions day-to-day.

As a financial planning firm, we could help you create a balanced investment portfolio that you can have confidence in, including if you want to take a hands-off approach.

4. Don’t be seduced by a “bargain”

Finding a bargain, whether you’re out shopping or assessing investments, can be thrilling – everyone wants to get something for less if they can. However, looking only at the price when you’re weighing up an investment opportunity might mean you make a decision that isn’t right for you.

Instead, look at the bigger picture. How would the investment fit into your wider portfolio, and does it align with your investment goals?

As Buffett said: “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

5. Make investing part of your wider financial plan

When you’re setting out or reviewing an investment strategy, it can be easy to look at it in isolation. Yet, by making it part of your wider financial plan, you could improve the decisions you make.

For example, your financial circumstances and goals will play a role in your investment risk profile. Incorporating these areas when weighing up investments could help you strike a balance that suits your needs. Without this approach, you could find yourself taking more risk than is appropriate.

Buffett once noted: “It is insane to risk what you have and need to obtain what you don’t need.”

Contact us to talk about your investment strategy

An investment strategy that’s been tailored to your needs could lead to returns that help you reach your long-term goals. Please get in touch to talk to us about your investments.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Opting for a “boring” investment strategy could be the route to returns that allow you to make exciting lifestyle decisions in the future. If you’re looking for excitement in your investments, read on to find out why that approach could lead to disappointments.

The media can make investing seem exciting

When you’re reading financial headlines, they might say things like “stock market soars in best day ever” or “the best companies to invest in right now”. In other media, investing is often dramatic too. For example, in The Wolf of Wall Street, the main character, Jordan Belfort, is shown making a huge fortune through investing and fraud.

Yet, despite the perceived excitement of investing, acting on emotions, even ones that feel positive, could harm your decisions. The excitement of finding a tip that declares a company will be the “next Apple” could lead to you skipping further research, like assessing the risk profile of the firm and whether it fits into your existing portfolio.

Investors might even feel excited about the risks they’re taking – the anticipation of waiting to see if they were “right” can be addictive. So, some investors may take more risk than is appropriate because it adds to the excitement.

As a result, viewing investing as something that should be exciting has the potential to affect the long-term performance and could mean you’re at greater risk of losing your money.

So, what’s the solution? For many, it’s taking a boring approach to investing.

Why boring investments work

First, what does a “boring” approach to investing mean?

Focusing on your long-term goals and building an investment strategy around this and other factors, such as what an appropriate level of risk is and other assets you might hold. You’d try to remove emotions from your investment decisions and, instead, use logic.

If you’ve heard the mantra “buy low, sell high”, this approach might seem like it wouldn’t work. Yet, historically, investing with a long-term outlook, rather than responding to short-term market movements, is a strategy that’s worked for many investors.

March 2023 data from Schroders highlights the challenges of trying to time the market.

If you’d invested £1,000 at the start of 1988 in an index of the largest 100 UK companies and left the investment alone, it would have been worth £15,104 in June 2022 – an annual return of 8.31% on average.

However, if you tried to time the market and missed just the 10 best days, your average annual return would fall to 6.1% and you’d have £7,503 in June 2022, less than half of the amount had you remained invested.

While trying to buy low and sell high might be exciting, even just a few mistakes could mean you miss out on long-term returns.

Of course, it’s important to note that investment returns cannot be guaranteed, and past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future performance. Yet, it can provide a useful insight into why taking a long-term view when making investment decisions could be beneficial.

Boring investing could lead to exciting lifestyle opportunities

A boring approach to investing doesn’t have to mean the outcomes are dull. In fact, taking a long-term approach could mean you have more opportunities to create the lifestyle you want.

A long-term investment strategy might allow you to tick items off your bucket list like:

• Retiring earlier to travel the world
• Sampling dishes at award-winning restaurants
• Creating a disposable income to attend gigs or the theatre
• Purchasing a holiday home to spend time with your family.

Rather than looking for excitement when investing, finding it in your long-term plans and what investment returns may allow you to do could be far more rewarding.

Contact us to talk about your investments

If you’d like to talk about your current investments, or you have a sum you’d like to invest, please get in touch. We’ll work with you to create a long-term investment strategy that’s aligned with your goals and financial circumstances.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.